Sunday, June 22, 2008

Quantum Fuel Systems (QTWW) A $10 Stock In The Making As Fisker's Hybrid Sports Car Set To Go Mainstream...

We have been accumulating a very large position in QTWW here in the $2s as we believe Fisker Automotive's first hybrid premium sports car named the Karma is set to be a huge success in 2009 and beyond. The Karma, which is powered by Quantum's "Q-Drive" hybrid engine, is the first of a set of premium sports cars designed by world-renowned Henrik Fisker who is also credited with designing some of the most beautiful cars on the road including Aston Martins as well as BMWs. The Karma which is set to go on sale in North America in late 2009 and Europe in 2010, boasts a mind-numbing 100 mpg fully-electric engine capable of launching you from 0-60 mph in 5.8 seconds and a top speed of 125mph. The pent up demand for a premium hybrid sports vehicle of this caliber is extremely significant in our opinion, and the launch of the Karma will without doubt force other premium car makers to produce hybrid sports cars as well, as consumers worldwide are finally exposed to the reality of what was previously thought of as impossible...a fairly priced hybrid sports car with power equivalent to that of its gas-guzzling counterparts.

Moreover, don't think for a second that Quantum has its entire fortunes banking on the success of this one vehicle. The company is also producing the engine for the hydrogen-fueled Toyota Prius as well as GM's upcoming fuel cell hybrid known as the Equinox. Tack on Quantum's 25% interest in German solar company Asola, which just announced a $17M solar contract, as well as plans to triple plant capacity due to increasing demand for photovoltaic systems in Europe, and Quantum is without doubt extremely well positioned to meet the increasing demand for alternative energy products over the next several years.

As a sign of Quantum's recent success in the marketplace and hopefully an indication of things to come look no further than Q3 2008s whopping 209% year over year revenue increase, going from $2.3M in Q3 2007 to $7.1M in Q3 2008. The company attributes the surge in revenue to increased hydrogen-based hybrid and fuel cell hybrid vehicle product sales and higher development revenue programs. While the company has yet to turn profitable it is absolutely moving in the right direction trimming its operating losses by 53% from $3.0M in Q3 2007 to $1.6M in Q3 2008. With an expected continuation of ramping revenue due to increasing demand for hybrid vehicles, we expect profitability is simply a matter of time. While the stock has come well off its lows of under $1, we believe institutions are accumulating shares here (indicated on the chart by a recent surge in volume over the the past 2 months) in preparation for a massive launch of a host of Quantum powered hybrid vehicles in 2009 and expect a strong continuation of the uptrend in shares throughout the year. As Quantum's expertise in the hybrid engine business continues to gain traction spurred by the success of the Fisker Karma as well as Asola's booming solar business, we expect revenues to ramp significantly over time, taking QTWW back to a respectable market cap of ~$750M and shares back to their January 2004 highs of $10. We continue to be strong buyers of QTWW shares here in the $2s and are looking to add on any dips that may present themselves.

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7 comments:

Anonymous said...

Doesn't look as if you have people biting on QTWW.

I own this, but chomping at the bit to dump it...if it ever hits $2.86 again.

Nostradamus said...

Be patient with QTWW, the float is much larger than ROYLs. It will be a slow mover to the upside over time. This is a long term hold. But I do expect a breakout to new highs soon. Watch for news.

Anonymous said...

Thanks--well, if it goes Green (i.e., $2.86+) and looks as if I can support number above that line, I may hold on to it.

You really like it for $10, huh?

BTW, if you like APWR (I also hold APWR) and expect it to climb to $100, why not buy into it now? Unless you think it will pull back significantly this week...

Cheers mate.

Nostradamus said...

We think APWR has some retracing to do and should get to the $25-27 range. We are market timers so we're always looking for optimal entries...no reason to pay $30 when we can pay $25

Mogz said...

Wow, didn't see the news about QTWW being added to the Russell 3000 until it happened today. That would've been the easiest 15% ever.

Anonymous said...

nos,

how do you feel about today's release of earnings. down $0.01 from analysis opinion, but up on rev. where do you see QTWW headed now? i am looking to add more on any pull back. i beleive this company has the right products at the right time in history. BOOOOM!

swerd96 said...

These comments are from the QTWW cc on 6/30.

QTWW IS CURRENTLY IN DISCUSSIONS WITH SEVERAL MAJOR AUTOMAKERS (probably the Chevy Volt)

Alan Niedzwiecki quotes from cc:

" ...WE ARE CURRENTLY IN DISCUSSIONS WITH SEVERAL OF THE MAJOR AUTOMOBILE COMPANIES that may be interested in the Q-Drive with Fisker and Quantum for their own applications - as we go foward"

"WE DO HAVE TWO SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES...(I'll call them wild cards right now)...that could be potential programs. One could be from a major automaker that could add tremendous influence on our outlook for the future...and also a military opportunity right now."