Monday, March 17, 2008

Bear Deal Forces Market To Significantly Reassess Market Caps of All Financials...

With Bear being taken under by JP Morgan for a truly embarrassing $2/share, the market will move to rethink valuations in every single financial stock.  The deal exposes the significant downside risk in every financial institution as the consequence of a run on the bank is brought to reality.  With risk/reward profiles for financials now significantly out of whack (downside risk for most of them now is probably 50%-100% with upside being 20% in the most optimistic scenario) the market will move to dump these stocks very hard as institutions are literally unable to quantify a long position and must remove any semblance of a financial off their books if they hope to maintain any clients.  There is simply no reason to own any financial right now.  The only question that remains is whose next? Is it Lehman, is it Citi, or maybe even WaMu? All seem like good candidates, with technicals and short interest dictating significant probabilities of much more downside.

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