Monday, July 7, 2008

US Economy At Major Turning Point, Intervention Needed Now...

Paulson + Bernanke & Co. have been awfully quiet while we sit here at this critical juncture in the economy and markets, and they really need to step in and do something now if they plan on averting a major economic meltdown. This malaise we currently sit in is at a major pivot point in my opinion. Once Oil breaks above $150 and the DOW breaks down into the 10,000 range it's over, as confidence will have been completely shot and any sort of intervention will have minimal impact. Whether its forex intervention, raising interest rates, and/or raising margin requirements it needs to be done now. Say what you want, but a combination or dollar intervention + raising margin requirements should take some wind out of the sails of Oil and a host of other commodities. Yes I know, Oil is a supply/demand story but breaking the momentum might buy some time for the reality of a global slowdown to set in. Second of all, we are nearing the start of the all important China Olympics which have been an important contributor to demand for energy as China gears up to showcase its country to the entire world. After the culmination of the Olympics or likely before that (as the mkt is forward looking) we should see commodity prices start to come down as the market begins to price in slower economic growth out of China. The rebuilding efforts due to the devastating earthquake in China is sort of a wild card, but the way I see it, it ends up being a zero sum contributor as the increase in government spending to rebuild the country will likely get cancelled out by a decrease in consumer demand due to the necessity of millions of people needing to rebuild their lives first and foremost. Thirdly, the slowdown which appears to be picking up steam overseas in europe is likely a net positive for the US as the relative weakness associated with the dollar and the US economy dissipates a bit as market participants begin to realize that the US is not much worse off than our european counterparts, and may in fact be closer to the end of their malaise than those just beginning to slowdown. We are in such a complex economic environment with Oil + food making all time nominal highs, inflation fears accelerating, slowdowns picking up overseas, the continued perceptions of stress within the banking system, and housing prices continuing to decline that something needs to happen now at least as an effort to quell the momentum to the downside. Traditional, untraditional, it doesn't matter, time is really against us at this point as every day that goes by things seem to get a bit worse. What the puppet masters behind the curtain are doing right now is beyond me, but i have a feeling they're working on something....just doesnt make sense that theyre just waiting for this thing to play out as they know what the end result is if nothing is done.

8 comments:

slippercat said...

the sky is falling !
what's the trade ?

dchoi224 said...

i dont know about that. paulson said that a major bank should be allowed to change. seems to sounds like a different attitude. today's announcement from bernanke extending the window into 2009 for the banks was really weak. i think they're saving whatever they got for when the s&p falls below 1200.

Unknown said...

hello nostradamus
can you tell us your position or current holding of stocks?
thanks in advance

Nostradamus said...

We are long the August 5 UAUA calls as airlines are the most leveraged to oil prices and therefore benefit the most on oil declines. These airline stocks were taken out to the woodshed the past several weeks and rightly so, however we like the risk/reward down here in terms of the probability of a significant bounce in the entire sector as Oil appears to be breaking down.

Unknown said...

nostradamus..
Do you still have position in royl
and pdo?

aymon said...

nos, what about apwr? you still have them? thanks

aymon

Nostradamus said...

Aymon we r still holding APWR, that is one of our long term holds.

moafis said...

NOS, thanks for your great advice over the last several months! your commentaries have helped many of us become successful traders. in the end, the person who takes your commentaries and does independent research on their own will succeed in the market. pschae, maybe you should take your business elsewhere as i'm sure others would love to have your optimistic opinion on their blog.

Thanks again, NOS!