Monday, September 15, 2008

Equity Market Being Used As Source Of Funds By Financial Institutions...

The stock market is being used as a source of funds right now which is not good....the largest players in the equity market have major major capital issues right now....AIG needs $80 Billion just to survive, that is a HUGE number (Goldmans entire market cap is $53B...they basically need a Goldman and a half) and they are just one major player....sure, institutions and market participants across the financial spectrum have used the equity market as a source of funds for a long time but never have the largest institutions in the financial ecosystem been under this much pressure to raise capital...and never have they experienced the need to raise capital for the ultimate sake of survival...that need to raise capital to meet margin calls in order to survive was usually (for the most part) limited to us the small guy...the market could easily weather that kind of selling pressure as long as the big guys were in there buying our stock on the cheap as we forcibly liquidated our holdings...now the shoe's on the other foot with large institutions joining us aggressively on the ask, which puts us in uncharted waters....liquidation of this magnitude leads to extremely rapid declines in asset prices especially those assets widely held by many large institutions....this rapid deterioration in stock prices ultimately leads to the point where stocks are no longer viewed as representing ownership in fundamentally sound companies but rather as a mere source of funds...a way to raise cash....you sell stock you get cash, thats what institutions need cash.....this is when panic begins to set in, it gets scary and stock markets crash, its when people become fearful of owning stocks as an asset class because of rapidly declining asset prices. after todays action you can tell real fear is developing in the market and people are really JUST starting to get a bit nervous about owning stocks....you're starting to see stocks that were worth $60-70/share go to zero....and these arent just any stocks, they were the biggest balls in the market....people are starting to think about what they own and what its really worth if panic sets in....i mean is it that far fetched to see AAPL selling in the 90s....the big boys could sell that stock off another 40 points down to $100 and funds would still be getting out with a profit...thats how you have to think right now....think about how much fund ownership your stocks have and know that those funds are having major problems and need cash.

1 comment:

Sean said...

Good to have you back!

Sean